SIU on Reforming Democrat Party

Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, joined the discussion on “Reforming Democrat Party” on Kom Chad Luek TV program.

9 October 2013 – Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, joined the discussion on “Reforming Democrat Party” on Kom Chad Luek TV program.

The other panelists are:

  • Alongkorn Ponlaboot, Deputy Leader, Democrat Party
  • Jidtakorn Busaba, Political Analyst
  • Assoc.Prof.Yuttaporn Issarachai, Dean, Faculty of Political Science, Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University

Article: Thailand on Track for 2 Trillion Baht Infrastructure Project

SIU publishes an article on Siam Voices / Asian Correspondent on Thailand’s 2 trillion Baht infrastructure project.

SIU publishes an article on Siam Voices / Asian Correspondent on Thailand’s 2 trillion Baht infrastructure project.

Thailand on track for 2 trillion baht infrastructure project

19 Sep 2013 – Today is the 7th anniversary of 2006 Coup d’etat in Thailand and also the day 2 trillion baht (US$64 billion) infrastructure development bill is submitted to Thai parliament.

While the act has a lot of critics (specifically on the ‘debt’ side), it is the most ambitious infrastructure investment in Thailand since the 1997 financial crisis.

The latest big infrastructure investments in Thailand occurred before the Asian financial crisis. After the crisis, Thai governments cut spending and even after the economy recovered there was little political will to launch major infrastructure projects. Thaksin Shinawatra’s government spent a lot of money on stimulating the economy, but there was little investment in infrastructure with the exception of Suvarnabhumi Airport, which opened in 2006 and is already struggling to handle passenger numbers.

This time, the Pheu Thai government is serious about infrastructure development. With the votes they have in parliament, the act should be passed without much trouble. Let’s look ahead at what we can expect over the next decade.

Thailand’s planned high speed rail routes. Pic: Thai-Japanese Association report (linked from image).

What is the plan?

The act will raise around 2 trillion baht to upgrade various  infrastructures.

  • 42.7% for highspeed trains
  • 24.9% for Bangkok metro/subway
  • 15% for road upgrades
  • 14.4% for train (non-highspeed) upgrades
  • 1.6% for sea ports
  • 1.5% for cargo stations and custom houses at borders

The Thai government has set a goal to reduce logistics costs per GDP by 2% (currently at 15.2%) and gradually shift the transport modal from road to rail.

The grand ambition of the highspeed train project is linking Southeast Asia to China – namely from Singapore to Kunming in China’s southwestern Yunnan province.

 

Pheu Thai officials talk with Japan Rails executives: Chadchart (far right) and Pansak (second right), and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (centre). Pic: Facebook.com.
Pheu Thai officials talk with Japan Rails executives: Chadchart (far right) and Pansak (second right), and Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (centre). Pic: Facebook.com.

Who is behind the plan?

Some key Pheu Thai people are:

  • Pansak Vinyaratn – the chief policy adviser to Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. He was the chief policy adviser to Prime Minister Thaksin before. He is the main strategist on the infrastructure and highspeed train plan.
  • Chadchart Sittipunt – the Minister of Transport, a rising star after his work on transportation policy and grassroots PR.
  • Prapat Chongsanguan – the current governor of State Railways of Thailand (SRT). He was the governor of Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand (MRT). He is the guy Pheu Thai sent to fix the SRT’s chronic problems.

What to expect?

The two most obvious benefits of 2-trillion-baht project are the economic benefits of the investment itself and the logistics upgrade. The Thai government said it will create 500,000 jobs during the course of investment.

Thailand’s rail infrastructure is very old and fragile. The existing rail network was built more than a century ago and has not been upgraded much in a last few decades. Whether it’s highspeed rail or not, the SRT infrastructure and organizational bureaucracy will be improved a lot after the upgrade, which can only benefit the economy.

The next point to watch is the geopolitical shift after the new ASEAN connectivity loop. Mainland ASEAN will link itself closely to Southern China.

Domestically, we will see the geopolitical shift within Thailand as well. The current ‘everything comes to Bangkok’ situation will be gradually changed. The economic power will be distributed to large cities in different parts of Thailand. Five to 10 clusters of ‘new economic area’ will emerge around the highspeed train lines.

What are the concerns?

Debt will be the most discussed issue but, in practice, Thailand’s public debt level is still controllable.

If the political forecast is correct, the Pheu Thai government should win the election again in 2015 and the development plan will go ahead.

My chief concern  is human resources and know-how on the highspeed rail project – a completely new thing to Thai society. Very few people know about it and the inefficiency of SRT will make things worse – expect serious delays.

It will take times, maybe a decade or more, to create a good train network and operate it properly.

SIU Comment on Egypt Situation

Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, gave his opinion about Egypt political situation on the TV program Kom Chad Leuk. The program was aired on 19 August 2013 via Nation Channel.

Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, gave his opinion about Egypt political situation on the TV program Kom Chad Leuk. The program was aired on 19 August 2013 via Nation Channel.

He was joined by Mr. Dolman Pongmaheung from Royal Thai Consulate in Cairo  and Prof. Jaran Maluleem from Faculty of Political Science, Thammasart University.

SIU TV Program: The Commentator on Voice TV

SIU has run a weekly news commentator program called “The Commentator” on Voice TV every Saturday at 12:00 (during 12am news program). The program is 10-minute news issue analysis by SIU staffs.

The Commentator

SIU has run a weekly news commentator program called “The Commentator” on Voice TV every Saturday at 12:00 (during 12am news program). The program is 10-minute news issue analysis by SIU staffs.

The episode archives are available online from Voice TV website. The sample episode is embedded below.

Voice TV is a cable/satellite news channel. You can find it on True Visions Ch.64 or 75, DTV Ch.7, GMMZ Ch.109, Sun Box Ch. 23 or 25 and PSI Ch. 41.

SIU Join “NBTC Ethics Forum”

SIU join a panel on “NBTC Ethics and Freedom of Speech” hosted by Heinrich Böll Foundation Thailand and Thai Broadcast Journalists Association.

SIU join a panel on “NBTC Ethics and Freedom of Speech” hosted by Heinrich Böll Foundation Thailand and Thai Broadcast Journalists Association (Thai BJA).

Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, talked about the international standard of media regulator ethics. He was joined the panel by Dr. Somchai Preechasilpakul (Chiang Mai University), Dr. Mana Treerayapiwat (UTCC) and Rungmanee Mekhasobhon (Senior Journalist).

The coverage of the seminar is available at Siam Intelligence site.

SIU at NBTC Public Forums

Isriya Paireepairit, SIU Research Director, joined two public forums organized by The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission.

Isriya Paireepairit, SIU Research Director, joined two public forums organized by The National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission.

He was a panel for NBTC Public Forum #6 “The End of 2G Concessions: What About Consumer?” on 31 August 2012. The second event is NBTC Public Forum #7 “Satellite TV Set-top Box” on 5 September 2012.

Event summaries are available (in Thai) at NBTC web site:

Reuters: Thailand’s yellow shirts regroup, seek comeback

Reuters has a story on 17 June 2012 on the regroup of PAD. Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, gave his comment for this article.

Reuters has a story on 17 June 2012 on the regroup of PAD. Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, gave his comment for this article.

Even so, the yellow shirts may be forced to rekindle that relationship and get the Democrats’ supporters and their friends in big business behind another street campaign.

“The yellow shirts need the Democrat party,” said Kan of the Siam Intelligence Unit. “Otherwise they will not survive.”

A yellow shirt revival also raises the potential of conflict with a red-shirted pro-Thaksin movement that helped propel Yingluck to power.

Reuters: Thailand’s yellow shirts regroup, seek comeback

SIU Program on Voice TV

Beginning in January 2012, The SIU staff now has a TV program “Practical Report” on Voice TV channel

Beginning in January 2012, The SIU staff now has a TV program on Voice TV channel. The program, “Practical Report”, is the summary and analysis on big issue during the week. The airtime is Sunday’s noon & evening news.

The archive video clips are available on Voice TV site and Siam Intelligence site.

Reuters: Thai Flood and Yingluck Administration

An article on Reuters by Martin Petty and Jason Szep. It discusses on Thailand’s 2011 great flood and the political implication to PM Yingluck’s government.

28 October 2011 – Insight: Thai flood crisis puts swamped PM in firing line, a story on Reuters by Martin Petty and Jason Szep. It discusses on Thailand’s 2011 great flood and the political implication to PM Yingluck’s government.

The article also quotes Kan Yuenyong, SIU Director, on the political impact to Yingluck’s administration:

The government’s Flood Relief Operations Center (FROC) hasn’t helped. One minister at the center, for instance, told residents in Bangkok’s fringe provinces to evacuate. Within hours, another insisted the situation was under control.

Thais have been told Bangkok would escape the floods. Now, they are told the capital could be swamped for a month. Many have given up listening.

“People now don’t trust the leadership of Yingluck and the government. They are hoarding food and water and now they are relying on social media for their information,” said Kan Yuanyong, director of Siam Intelligence Unit, a think-tank.

In recent appearances before reporters, Yingluck has looked exhausted, at times on the verge of tears with a tremor in her voice — in stark contrast to her seemingly boundless energy and confidence on the campaign trail.

The full article is available at Reuters. It is also translated into Thai by Manager.

The Nation: SIU and Flood Volunteers

The Nation has an article about citizen volunteering at Don Muang Airport. The article discuss on the difference of political ideology among flood volunteers with SIU’s opinion.

14 October 2011 – The Nation has an article about citizen volunteering at Don Muang Airport. The article discuss on the difference of political ideology among flood volunteers.

Our project manager, Pichate Yingkiattikun, is also volunteering at Don Muang Airport and he gave his opinion for the article.

Pichate Yingkiattikun, project manager at Siam Intelligence Unit, a think tank, and another volunteer at the Mirror Foundation complained that while volunteers try to do what they can, he earlier spotted a man protesting outside against the government.

“Well, at least we should emerge with a slightly better understanding of one another,” Pichate said, of the politics of coloured shirts.

The original article is available at The Nation web site: No red, yellow conflict at Don Mueang