Welcome to the second issue of Thailand Intelligence Report. This week in Thai politics will be around the Parliament.
President of the Senate
The first issue is the election of new President of the Senate today (14 August). There are three candidates: Nikom Wairatpanich (Current VP), Gesha Saksomboon and Pichate Soontornpipit. Nikom and Gesha are from the elected senator faction while Pichate is from the appointed faction.
This election is the power play between Elected and Appointed party. The media report that Pheu Thai will support Nikom but the votes just come from senators anyway. We expect very few impact for general political landscape for anyone who become the new President.
Government Budget FY2013
The house of representative will discuss about Government Budget FY2013 during 15-17 August 2012. The draft will pass the lower house anyway since Pheu Thai has control the votes. Though Democrat Party has already expressed the will to expose government budget corruptions thoroughly. It can be considered as a pre-event of a proper debate of no-confident in November.
Abhisit Resignation Rumor
There is a rumor (from Pheu Thai) that Democrat majority are against Abhisit and we will see his resignation from party leader soon. We think this news is very unlikely. Our sources confirm that many Democrats are not welcome Abhisit (his personality is not likable by his party members, according to the sources) but they still can’t find anyone who is better than Abhisit as well.
Democrat Party has still struggled for the leader succession line. Abhisit has lost his reputation during his reign but both Korn and Apirak are still not good enough as well.
There is also a rumor that Yingluck has conflicts with Thaksin. This news is unlikely as well and has no impact for short term politics. They should have some disagreements on policies and personnel but they will stick together for the moment. This might lead to the “Yingluck Faction” in Pheu Thai party but the one who control is still be Thaksin anyway.
Thaksin in USA
Thaksin went to LA for a talk and meeting with Red Shirts in the US. However, the US Yellow Shirts gathered a rally in the same venue (2,000 people according to report). Thaksin skipped the event to avoid conflict and no clash between reds and yellows.